Predictive Location Analytics: The PetSmart acquisition of Petco

Data from AggData LLC // Analysis by Beitz and Daigh Geographics

News recently broke that PetSmart is looking to acquire Petco, so we thought it would be interesting to look at these store portfolios and study the location analytics of this merger.  According to the latest data from AggData there are 1,440 PetSmart locations and 1,292 Petco locations (including 127 stores under the Unleashed by Petco brand).

Using Esri Business Analyst Desktop GIS software we discovered that 62% of Petco locations are within a 10 minute drive time of a PetSmart. Drilling down even further we found that there are 223 Petco locations (17%) within 1 mile of an existing PetSmart, and 2 PetSmart locations contain 2 Petcos each within a 1 mile radius. We next focused our analysis on these 223 “overlap” locations at the 10 minute drive time trade area and noted some interesting findings by looking at the Market Potential Data from Esri.

The Market Potential data showed that PetSmart has a much higher household market share that Petco does.  Looking at the overlap stores, only 4 of PetSmart’s trade areas report more customers shopping at Petco than PetSmart (2 of these stores are in Los Angeles and 2 are in Chicago), while the majority (219 stores) report more customers shopping at PetSmart than Petco.  The Market Potential data is provided in Esri Business Analyst desktop and the information originates from consumer surveys complied by GfK MRI.

When retail chains merge, store closures often result.  Next, we looked at the population and income for all of the 10 minute trade areas for the overlap stores and highlighted the stores that have the lowest combination of population and income. This map shows the top 5 locations where a Petco would most likely close (assuming the weaker market share store would close):

PetProjectBlog

 

AggData LLC is a data service provider. AggData is short for “aggregate data”; the site provides usable, portable databases of information extracted from across the web. Specializing in location based information, such as complete geocoded lists of retail chain locations, the quality of the data is assured by extracting from original, first-hand online sources, rather than re-tooling third-party databases.  For more information on AggData, please visit www.aggdata.com.

Beitz and Daigh Geographics, Inc., an Esri Business Partner, provides GIS (Geographic Information Systems) solutions for organizations looking to visualize, research, analyze , and display location data. Nationwide professional services and consulting are provided using the latest GIS software from Esri, the world leader in GIS software technology. Current and former clients include Shopping Center Owners, Real Estate Investors, Retail and Multi-Family Developers, Real Estate Brokers, Investment Banking Organizations, and Internet Entrepreneurs. For more information on Beitz and Daigh Geographics, Inc., please visit www.beitzanddaigh.com